2008 Tour de France: Chris Carmichael's Yellow Jersey Prediction

Not Done Yet

By Chris Carmichael

Well that's unusual. Normally you'd expect a summit finish in the Alps to increase the time gaps between the main favorites for the yellow jersey, but strong performances today put the top six riders within 50 seconds of each other in the overall classification. And while Cadel Evans may have lost the yellow jersey for the moment, I still believe he's the one who will prevail and wear yellow into Paris.

Evans didn't look great today, but he was good. He was alert and responded quickly to incessant attacks all the way up the final climb to Prato Nevoso, only losing contact in the final two kilometers. Even then he managed to limit his losses to Denis Menchov, Carlos Sastre, Christian Vande Velde, Frank Schleck, and the new challenger on the block, Bernard Kohl. But riding like he did today will only get him so far, and limiting your losses typically means salvaging a position on the podium instead of standing on the top step.

The Australian leader of the Silence-Lotto team needs to step up his performance over the next two mountain stages, and I think he'll be able to do that. Tomorrow is a rest day and I believe Evans will recuperate well and come back to ride with much greater strength on Stage 16. Rather than looking at today's performance as the beginning of the end for Evans, I think today was his bad day and we'll see him put pressure on his rivals on Tuesday and Wednesday.

From today's performances, Menchov looks to be most dangerous. The CSC-Saxo Bank trio of Sastre, and Frank and Andy Schleck are certainly strong, but when Menchov attacked he looked so fast and yet so controlled that you really have to wonder what could have happened if his front wheel had not slipped out from under him on a corner. Even after that fall he never looked like he was under pressure and he went with Sastre's acceleration in the final two kilometers without looking like he was digging very deep. With that kind of power in the next two mountain stages, and his proven ability against the clock in time trials, he's emerging as Evans' top challenger for the overall victory.

Perhaps the most important decision Evans needs to make is to commit to being aggressive in the next two mountain stages in order to gain time on his rivals and leave the Alps with the yellow jersey. Yes, he has the time trial power to take the jersey back from climbers like Sastre and Frank Schleck, but it's unwise to sit back and limit your losses and then rely on a time trial performance to take the jersey. Evans is a good time trial rider, but he's not an Indurain or Armstrong who could take minutes out of their rivals even when they weren't at their best. For Evans, it's better to have the leader's jersey and defend it with a strong time trial than to be chasing it on the day before the finish in Paris.

With six riders within striking distance of the yellow jersey, the racing is going to get even more aggressive over the next two stages. All of the riders sitting within 50 seconds of the lead are pretty evenly matched right now and will to have to dig deep into their energy reserves several times on Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Their ability to recover from these efforts is going to play a major role in determining the results, and I believe that tomorrow's rest day is going to benefit Cadel Evans most of all.

Click here to read all of Chris Carmichael's Tour de France stage reports.